How Do Operations in the Donbass Bring Russia Closer to Victory?
Let’s look at the tactical facts that will lead to strategic realities
Western corporate media often speaks ill of the Russian military operations, as though if Russia doesn’t do what they say, then Russia isn’t fulfilling their objectives. But who sets the objectives? Is it the media? Or is it the Russian government? I would “hazard” to say that it is the Russian government that sets the objectives and the measurements of the fulfillment of such objectives. So when the Western corporate media says that Russia is “stalled” or isn’t making progress, the media here is just saying that they either don’t understand Russian objectives or they don’t care about them. What are those objectives? And how is Russia doing in achieving those objectives?
Let’s consider what the Russian government had to say about their own objectives. President Putin said that the objectives are the denazification and the demilitarization of Ukraine, meaning that there is a political goal (removal of a political structure that’s anti-Russian) as well as a technical goal (which is the destruction of Ukrainian capacity to wage war). If we also consider that at least one senior general as well as the Belarussian president has given evidence that Russia wants to attack all the way to Transnistria, we can also infer that another objective is the annexation of all Russian areas of Ukrainian territory.
The president of Belarus shows how Russian interest in Ukraine extends all the way to Transnistria.
But what do Russian tactics on the battlefield reveal about Russian objectives? Let’s consider their achievements and their performance on the ground. One reality is that Russian troops hoist the Russian flag upon poles wherever they find them, whether they are on administrative or military buildings. Another reality is that there is conversation also to form a federal district of Russia out of Kherson, Melitopol, and Crimea. Another reality is that those areas are starting to use Rubles, Russian media, Russian telecommunications services, and Russian government benefits. So those areas are already being integrated back into Russia.
When are you going to get to the events in the Donbass, you say? Right now. Because not only are Western corporate commentators missing a lot about Russian tactics and strategy, but they often seem to purposefully obfuscate them. The potential effects of events in the Donbass are hard to overestimate.
Russian military doctrine is not the same as American military doctrine. Americans have many more logistical units and also rely much more on striking the enemy from the sky, making the American approach to war a combination of fast breakthrough and air superiority. The Russian approach to war, however, is different, in that they have integrated tactical battalions that can easily rain down massive amounts of rockets and shells. They can easily attack, but they can’t get very far very quickly when Russia doesn’t have a lot of logistics companies to keep them fueled and moving. Russia also has the most advanced missile systems in the world that can obliterate the enemy in minutes, meaning that their specialty is superior firepower.
As they use this superior firepower in the Donbass, according to reporting, Russia is destroying battalion upon battalion of equipment and personnel. Ukraine thereby loses their capacity to kinetically respond to attacks, and they become very vulnerable in any battle. As they lose their capacity to fight, then they start to look at their options, and they wonder if their backs are covered.
In back of them, Russia is cutting off Ukrainian access to points of retreat and points of resupply. Russian BTGs are able to find roads and highways behind Ukrainian units to prevent them from being able to reposition and resupply. So the choice of Ukrainian units on the ground is becoming either to stay where they are while they are encircled or to retreat and allow Russia to capture more territory. While they are retreating, Ukrainian units will also become vulnerable to attacks and ambushes, which brings their situation to a Catch 22.
As Russia defeats these units in the Donbass, then the whole of Donbass becomes a staging ground for attacks further west into Ukraine, meaning that now that frontline Ukrainian units have been defeated or diminished, then it becomes easier to push deeper into more territory and destroy even more Ukrainian units, especially as Russian forces from the north and south come together with them to concentrate their force. This reality will allow them to punch through a lot more Ukrainian units and territory. As more defeats are sustained, the Ukrainian military is starting to have a morale problem, and whenever there is a morale problem, that leads us to wonder about a possible desertion problem.
As shown on the map, the Severodonetsk metroplex is already starting to be encircled, and there are already reports of retreating Ukrainian troops.
The second line of Ukrainian defense is already being threatened and cutoff by gains in Popasnaya.
The Izyum direction is also starting to seal the whole area of the Donbass off from other areas.
Thus the success in the Donbass will inevitably lead to success beyond the Donbass and will bring more capitulation from the Ukrainian military. Western media commentators acts like Russia is suffering a big defeat. If only they would let their audience know how dire the situation could become. Their consciences are sure darkened.
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Russia wants all of the Russian areas and will neutralize the rest.
So what's russias aim ? occupying the entire ukraine ?