Sep 11, 2022·edited Sep 11, 2022Liked by Thomas Bergman
Unlikely that the RF was 'blindsighted' at all. On the other hand those without any military service and knowledge of operational arms are blindsighted all the time. That is true and furher complicated by the fact that the general staffs on both sides of the Atlantic keep information close, so don't feel slighted.
Furthermore, howlywood (intentional pun) is not a substitute for staff officers college. Unfortunately that is the sum total of military knowledge and experice that most, including too many politicians have.
The best, brief, take on this is from Larry Johnson - who does have the background expereince to offer intellegent opinions and analysis:
Larry refers to Andrei Martyanov. One must get used to AM's style - to the point, un-PC, to put it mildly. It's the message, not the delivery that is impotant.
Douglas MacGregor is also a good source to look at.
I think that Feral Finster's second point is important. The 'probes' near Zaproroxhe (sp. approximate) and Kharkov coincide with the OTAN Rammstein meeting. Keep the $$$$$$ flowing and the psyop going!
Don't let internet maps and most especially google satellite maps get you excited. They are not to scale, do not show terrain in any meaninful detail, and do not accurately reflect force distrubutions. The maps that do are property of the general staffs involved, not on the internet.
That this is war that is not covered by imbeded reporters attached to frontline units, however censored, should tell you something. Read where the 'reports' that are published are coming from - besides not from the front, not even from the country where the fighting is. London? Berlin? Really?
War is an equal opportunity situation - all sides get a say - action and then there is reaction - repeat over and over again. This is not a win or loss for any side, whther this probe or the total SMO, yet. And there will be more to follow.
Sep 11, 2022·edited Sep 23, 2022Liked by Thomas Bergman
1.Poor reconnaissance and intelligence.
2. Lack of personnel. Trying to conquer Ukraine with 150,000-200,000 troops is not going to work.
3. An unwillingness to wreck Ukraine. Start with transport and communications infrastructure, then everything else. Keep in mind that the Ukrainians have no problems fighting dirty, using civilians as human shields, phoney atrocity stories, etc..
The counteroffensive should have been noticed, there should have been adequate personnel to deal with it, and it should have been impossible for Ukraine to maneuver troops or supplies in the first place.
Anyone who thinks the current situation is really what the Russian leadership wanted is delusional. The question now remains whether Russia is ready to do what it takes to win.
That the Russian High Command or the president were blindsided is pure speculation.
They do not publish their military plans and most insights into Russian strategic and tactical planning and outcomes are invented for expost facto narratives, most of which do not stand up.
The Russian Armed Forces does not fight for territory and this is not WWI.
One clear objective here of the former SMO and now a forthcoming heavy military campaign is the destruction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, that US-NATO-UK Proxy Army trained to take down the Russian State. Mission Failure over the lives of several hundred Ukrainians.
The risk of any Washington - London ally state.
As The Ukraine goes, so goes NATO, then the EU, then the slow grinding destruction of The West as global power and trade swing to the century of The Great Eurasian Union.
Unlikely that the RF was 'blindsighted' at all. On the other hand those without any military service and knowledge of operational arms are blindsighted all the time. That is true and furher complicated by the fact that the general staffs on both sides of the Atlantic keep information close, so don't feel slighted.
Furthermore, howlywood (intentional pun) is not a substitute for staff officers college. Unfortunately that is the sum total of military knowledge and experice that most, including too many politicians have.
The best, brief, take on this is from Larry Johnson - who does have the background expereince to offer intellegent opinions and analysis:
https://sonar21.com/understanding-planning-orders-and-troop-movements-in-ukraine/
Larry refers to Andrei Martyanov. One must get used to AM's style - to the point, un-PC, to put it mildly. It's the message, not the delivery that is impotant.
Douglas MacGregor is also a good source to look at.
I think that Feral Finster's second point is important. The 'probes' near Zaproroxhe (sp. approximate) and Kharkov coincide with the OTAN Rammstein meeting. Keep the $$$$$$ flowing and the psyop going!
Don't let internet maps and most especially google satellite maps get you excited. They are not to scale, do not show terrain in any meaninful detail, and do not accurately reflect force distrubutions. The maps that do are property of the general staffs involved, not on the internet.
That this is war that is not covered by imbeded reporters attached to frontline units, however censored, should tell you something. Read where the 'reports' that are published are coming from - besides not from the front, not even from the country where the fighting is. London? Berlin? Really?
War is an equal opportunity situation - all sides get a say - action and then there is reaction - repeat over and over again. This is not a win or loss for any side, whther this probe or the total SMO, yet. And there will be more to follow.
1.Poor reconnaissance and intelligence.
2. Lack of personnel. Trying to conquer Ukraine with 150,000-200,000 troops is not going to work.
3. An unwillingness to wreck Ukraine. Start with transport and communications infrastructure, then everything else. Keep in mind that the Ukrainians have no problems fighting dirty, using civilians as human shields, phoney atrocity stories, etc..
The counteroffensive should have been noticed, there should have been adequate personnel to deal with it, and it should have been impossible for Ukraine to maneuver troops or supplies in the first place.
Anyone who thinks the current situation is really what the Russian leadership wanted is delusional. The question now remains whether Russia is ready to do what it takes to win.
Read Moon of Alabama before writing articles like this !
That the Russian High Command or the president were blindsided is pure speculation.
They do not publish their military plans and most insights into Russian strategic and tactical planning and outcomes are invented for expost facto narratives, most of which do not stand up.
As for these, judge for oneself . . . https://les7eb.substack.com/
All prediction made are correct. Judgment shall be by outcomes.
The Russian Armed Forces does not fight for territory and this is not WWI.
One clear objective here of the former SMO and now a forthcoming heavy military campaign is the destruction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, that US-NATO-UK Proxy Army trained to take down the Russian State. Mission Failure over the lives of several hundred Ukrainians.
The risk of any Washington - London ally state.
As The Ukraine goes, so goes NATO, then the EU, then the slow grinding destruction of The West as global power and trade swing to the century of The Great Eurasian Union.
As discussed here and in prior essays . . . https://les7eb.substack.com/p/long-proxy-war-vii-crisis-of-failure