Is Russian success in the Donbass too late for Russian victory in Ukraine?
Timing and sequence are the keys to understanding the answer
In the Western corporate media, they play up every Russian withdrawal. They report every little Russian failure and omit every single Russian success, or, indeed, obscure Russian success as though they are some version of a decrepit Darth Vader, diabolically scheming with so little success. There is a way in which people in the West will impugn every motive or action of an adversary and forget every regrettable thought and deed in which they partook. And then when the people on TV tell them about someone or something that’s bad, bad, bad, many Western viewers will just be lulled into the demonization pushed in such propaganda.
Therefore, we must consider what potential Russia as a great power and civilization has in fulfilling all of their objectives in Ukraine.
Western corporate media portrays the situation in Kharkov as a clear sign of Russian defeat, which may seem in some eyes to be the loss of an entire area of territory. But as reports have said, the withdrawal of Russian forces occurred before Ukrainian forces even arrived at those points of dispute. That suggests it was an instance of a tactical retreat, performed in order that Russia could attain tactical advantages before pursuing a confrontation. We can see signs of success now with Russian counterattacks upon Ukrainian positions, regaining villages they had left in their tactical withdrawal.
An evaluation of the Ukrainian troop presence in the Donbass, the big blue circle shows a presence of at least fifty or sixty thousand troops while the small blue circle shows a presence of around twenty thousand troops.
What tactical advantages do the Russians now have? It lies in the fact that Ukrainian forces are now drawn out in the open, allowing clear artillery barrages upon their positions in rural territory without causing collateral damage or civilian death. Russia can destroy Ukrainian vehicles, tanks, and artillery pieces with much more ease. This means that Russia has the potential to decimate the Ukrainian forces, solidify their positions in the Kharkov region for good, and even attain numerical advantages during this period.
In the Western corporate media, there is also a deafening silence regarding the conflict in the Donbass, as though nothing has even happened there. But were it known, viewers and readers would see that Russia is finding a way to ensure progress there. Indeed, Russia has encircled the biggest city in the Severodonetsk metroplex and has turned the lines of retreat of their sister city across the river into a firing zone, meaning that chances of surviving a retreat grow more grim by the day. Thus the Western corporate media has ignored a very significant development in the armed conflict.
Is this enough to secure overall victory for Russia in Ukraine? What about potential Ukrainian reinforcements from western Ukraine and any units being trained and equipped in NATO countries?
Let’s consider the near future first. The fall of the Severodonetsk metroplex seems to be just a matter of time, as Ukrainian President Zelensky has said himself that he expects the region to be “destroyed” and that it would be “hell” for Ukrainian forces. Not only that public statement brings assurance of the outcome of the military operation, but the Ukrainian military has declined to send reinforcements there, seeming to write off the region already as a loss. After the metroplex falls, that opens up the entire region to a sure flow of Russian troops from the east, allowing for massive concentrations of forces behind enemy lines. One important line would be the one that would potentially extend from Popasnaya to Bakhmut and beyond, allowing for a Russian breakthrough from the Gorlovka area. And then the other one would be an encirclement and eventual capture of the Slavayansk area.
As the lines break around Severodonetsk, especially Lysychansk, you will see a cascade of breakthroughs all the way to Slavayansk as well as beyond Bakhmut.
This all will take a considerable amount of time, but there will be a crescendo after each stop on the way to progress. It seems to entirely depend upon the fist punch out of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, the sister city.
As the frontline narrows in the Donbass, therefore, and the territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic is filled in, then there will be a massive concentration of forces that can be directed towards Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, and or Zaporizhzhia. This will all take place in a matter of months, and there will be scoffers at every stage of the way questioning Russian victory. Right now such scoffers are saying that Russia faces a sure problem once Ukrainian units trained and equipped by NATO arrive on the battlefield. But that will take another few months, and in the meantime, the Kyiv regime will lose tens of thousands of some of the most well-seasoned troops, along with whole divisions’ worth of equipment. Ukrainian civilians as well as soldiers will suffer even more from lack of morale as a result.
The area marked is a heavily fortified area in southern Ukraine that will also take a significant amount of time for Russia to capture.
According to the US Army, those troops will take around twenty weeks to train from the beginning of bootcamp to training in specialized equipment. The Kyiv regime needs the troops that have been trained already on the frontlines, otherwise Russia would be breaking through their lines much more easily, so it is unlikely that the troop currently being trained by NATO will be from the best recruitment pool. Many of them will be here older, have more health and fitness problems, and are not as fanatically nationalist as the ones who joined before the current phase of conflict. Russia will be closer to their bases of operation, as we can expect the frontlines to shift towards central Ukraine, and so it will be easier to penetrate western Ukraine to destroy the battle readiness of the new recruits. During the period when Ukraine has yet to gain more trained soldiers, Russian numerical advantages will continue to increase while Russian force concentration brings even more tactical advantages.
As can be clearly seen, the potential for Russian victory becomes greater and greater. The Western corporate media wants to obscure this basic point, but it can be easily discredited after investigating the facts on the ground just a little bit. Kharkov becomes evermore vulnerable to encroachment as Russia is able to pick off Ukrainian positions on the now-thin Ukrainian frontlines there, allowing them to have confidence to dominate that battle space. A massive Russian breakthrough on the Donbass frontlines seems evermore assured, with consequential significance for breakthroughs in other areas. The potentials for Russian victory grow by the day and can be increased by leaps and bounds. You just have to follow the signs.
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82% of Ukrainians are not prepared to give up territories for ‘peace’ with #Russia. New surveys in as of May 24th. So Ukrainians do not want peace right now and will keep resisting quite longer. Protracted war or war of attrition is inevitable. Will Putin succeed in this longer war? I am very skeptical. Russian casualties grossed up about 14,400 according to CSIS, and this number is about the same size as Russian sustained in the 10 year Afganistan war.