What is Russia going to do with its assemblies of troops in Belarus and around Sumy?
Back to the future: phase three of the special military operation?
As the conflict in Ukraine rages on, many people notice that there has been little territorial acquisition on the part of Russian allied forces lately. It seems as though the frontlines become standstills from time to time. This affects the events in the Donbass remarkably, as the greatest fortifications and entrenchments are in that region. Russia made two mistakes at the beginning of the war that they are turning into serious advantages. The first was not realizing the level of political and security control the Kiev regime had over the administration of the Oblasts, preventing a peaceful transfer of local control. The other was an apparent underestimation of the level of fortifications in the Donbass, meaning that breakthroughs in the key eastern region of Ukrainian-controlled territory were made extremely costly. Russian allied forces took advantage of this reality, seeing the stubborn resistance on the part of Ukrainian commanders, and just decided to destroy them in their place without regard to immediate territorial acquisition. They could destroy the ability of Kiev to hold territory without the requirement of heavy street battles. As a result, there are possibly dozens of Ukrainian casualties to a few Russian ones, making the attrition ratios practically astronomical.
The map Dimitri Medvedev, second in command on the Russian Security Council, posted to show what he envisions for the future of the region.
If this is all true, why does Russia have troops on the Russian and Belarus border waiting in seeming reserve to fight? There are multiple divisions worth of artillery, infantry, armor, and armed aircraft waiting on the border to fight. This has aroused suspicions among many that Russia is going to expand the fronts of war. Many even suspect that Russia will carry out an expansion of operations around the Ukrainian day of independence, only a few days away. What would cause Russia to go back to their first strategy that seemed to apparently fail?
Well, if the obstacles that posed problems to their initial success were brought out of the way, then there wouldn’t be a reason to fear another failure. Russians have learned from their mistakes and know that they have to wait for a greater collapse of morale among Ukrainian security services and also have to wait for the strongest Ukrainian fortifications to fall in the Donbass. Then they will know the key obstacles to their swift victory on the entire theater of conflict would be removed.
What would be the factors behind the Russian calculus for expansion of the frontlines of the theater of conflict to around Sumy and Kiev, the cities the Russian army could threaten again if they once again waged the conflict from the north? To maximize effectiveness and minimize losses of equipment and manpower, timing and battlefield advantages have to be taken into consideration.
They don’t want those units currently standing by to engage in heavy combat more than they would otherwise have to. It would just be a waste of equipment and manpower, and casualties should be avoided. If they waited until Russian allied troops from the Donbass caught up to other areas of Ukrainian territory, then the Ukrainian units defending Ukrainian control of the territory would be operationally encircled almost immediately from two vectors of attack, and the strength of Russian attack would be effectively doubled also by the use of a two vector strategy. So not only would Ukrainians be encircled, but they would soon be outmanned as well. This would turn the tables completely against the Kiev regime and cause a much swifter capitulation on the part of the Ukrainian security forces. So in this estimation, the use of those troops held on the border all depends on when Russian allied troops on the eastern front catch up, and disarray begins to pervade the entire theater of Ukrainian positions. Thus when eastern troops reach southern Kharkov oblast, troops in other directions will also be able to advance more. And so on and so on and so on, with each victory making the next victory even easier to accomplish.
Thus we can see how Russian strategy, far from failing to think big, thinks about a bigger and easier victory than anyone might imagine. They turn weaknesses into incredible strength, destroying Ukrainian security forces. They adapt strategy for the most effect. And they don’t waste precious resources that could be better used elsewhere. If only American leaders were so prudent and intelligent. We may not even be in this mess at that point.
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