What will the fall of the Lysychansk region fulfill for Russian strategy?
Let’s consider how the battlefield gains translate to diplomatic bargaining chips, or owning the casino
In the Western corporate media, they are starting to speak about Ukraine teaching a bargain with Russia to end the military conflict. Some members of American and British governments have privately disclosed that Ukraine will never see some of its territorial claims restored to its control. Henry Kissinger said that the Kiev regime should offer Crimea and the Donbass to Russia in exchange for some sort of peace agreement with Russia. Yet others, including President Zelensky, want to deliver defeat to Russia on the battlefield. Neoconservatives and liberal interventionists alike also believe that Ukraine and its NATO allies must defeat Russia at all costs; wishing to deliver regime change in Moscow. Yet if we consider the military realities on the ground, the economic picture in Russia compared to the West, and also the public statements of Russian leaders, it is clear to see how Russia will not relent until it fulfills all of its objectives, which are the elimination of the Ukrainian military from the battlefield, a change in the Kiev regime, as well as the security of Russian regions.
If we look at the military operations currently taking place on the ground, it can easily be seen how Russia accelerates the pace of Ukrainian attrition and is learning from any mistakes it may have made at the beginning. Some popular pro-Kiev figures for Russian deaths have been over thirty thousand, but more recent pro-Kiev analyses have revised that down to around twenty five thousand. Whatever the true number is, we can say that it is less than the Kievan propaganda has been saying, and they have a track record of giving whoppers. Contrast this to public admissions of Ukrainian officials themselves, which track what pro-Russian commentators have been saying and could amount to up to a hundred thousand Ukrainian troops dead. This is according to the Ukrainian presidential advisor who said that deaths average a thousand a day. If you multiply that by the number of days of the Russian Special Military Operation, it would exceed a hundred thousand.
The situation around Lysychansk also shows how Russian success in fulfilling its objectives can occur even more quickly than that. Towns all around that area are falling under Russian control, with rapid success over the past several days and the whole area taking only a few more days to completely physically encircle or capture. At one point, there was up to twenty thousand Ukrainian troops there to capture or kill. Some of them were allowed to attempt retreat, but the area of retreat has been under close fire control for at least a week, if not longer, hindering any mass retreat. There are still thousands of Ukrainian troops to encircle and force to surrender.
As Ukrainian forces are forced to abandon the frontlines there and retreat to more defensible positions not yet destroyed by the Russian frontlines, Russian forces are rushing to find as many weak points as possible before they are fortified and consolidated under Ukrainian retreat. Their two main targets for these operations are Seversk and Bakhmut/Artemosk, with Seversk being the only currently conceivable point of retreat from Lysychansk. Moreover, Russian control of Seversk would allow Russian troops north of the Siverskydonetsk river to attack from the other side and eventually flood into the the area. It would move the whole eastern Donbass frontline all the way to Slavayansk. Not only that, but those frontlines would also eventually reach the other side of Artemosk from the west, according to the Military Analysis YouTube channel, as there are no significant towns south of Seversk until you get to Artemosk. This would allow Russian forces to grind away at much more Ukrainian military strength, and would precipitate Russian success in the entire region. Russian forces have already made quick gains all the way up to the next-door neighbor towns around Seversk, so it is conceivable that Russian forces could break through the whole region very shortly.
As can be seen on the inset map, Russian forces are advancing towards all towns around Lysychansk, pushing all forces there into operational-tactical encirclement. Also, if you look at the area east of Slavayansk downwards, you can see the open area where Russian forces can break through village after village and rapidly push the frontlines to the south of Slavayansk.
With Russia on the cusp of so much success, its government has no incentive to negotiate with Kiev whatsoever. They are making sure gains in destroying the Ukrainian military every day, and after each breakthrough can repurpose the victorious troops to achieve other victorious breakthroughs elsewhere. This means that Russia can keep increasing the pressure on the Kiev regime around the whole country, encircling and capturing other important regions and cities. President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov affirm this when they say that they can completely achieve their objectives and that President Zelensky will not be allowed to sit at the negotiating table anymore.
Not only does Russia have an advantage over the Kiev regime, but they are finding advantages over Western political and economic realities as well. America faces increasing chatter about a civil war while an unpopular American president imposes increasing costs upon basic goods and services. Europe also faces a highly predictable economic recession combined with a winter without sufficient heating or fuel to pursue economic and social activities. This is all due to American and European policies against Russia. The Russian government has already indicated a lack of trust towards Western leaders. It is therefore Western leaders who need to get back into the good graces of Russia in order to solve their basic problems rather than Russia restoring any trust from the West.
Mistrust of Russia by Americans has been driven by Russophobic hysteria for decades. Those in the Western corporate media are so eager to punish and defeat Russia that they blind themselves and others to basic facts on the battlefield and in our own economies. The proverb says “Know thine enemy,” but we should also know ourselves first.
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