As Russia becomes more successful in the battlefields of eastern Ukraine, there are still those who scoff at the progress of Russia. They say that Russia may take some hard wins in the Donbass, but that was only after failing so much. They say that surely Russia doesn’t have the forces required to take the whole country of Ukraine and that it would surely involve Russia in a quagmire to occupy the whole country with Russian authority. Critics of Russia also say that the Russian authorities don’t even have enough forces to take the country. They say that Russia is simply overwhelmed by the situation.
But let us consider a few realities.
The success Russia is having is not very hard won at all, since the slow pace of troop movement is not the metric by which to measure the progress of Russia in the battlefield. Russia is pursuing a policy of demilitarization, which means that they are destroying the ability of Ukraine to fight. They are destroying equipment and personnel so that, after they move into Ukrainian territory, they meet little resistance and suffer few casualties of their own, and they will continue this strategy until the whole country can no longer resist. It is also a fact that, as Ukrainian units are destroyed, Ukraine loses more and more of their ability to carry out combined arms operations and concentrate their forces enough even to put up any significant defense at all. It is like losing a handful of your best players on your team while they play on the field and having to play with a seriously depleted team.
It takes time to perform the operations required in order to hold cities and maintain them under Russian control. While most of the heavy Ukrainian forces may leave cities, Russian forces cannot always trust that a seeming ghost town really has no threats. They have to make sure that they take care of any remaining Ukrainian forces there and they have to ensure the humanitarian and logistical conditions are back on track, so that there is no chaos towards their rear as they advance to the next lines of battle. And when it comes to the largest country in Europe, it will take an invading power quite some time to perform all of its operations there. So the scoffers have not even thought past their own disdain for the enemy in their mind.
When it comes to the region of Ukraine on the western side of the Dneper river, however, these scoffers become even more adamant in their protests against the ability of Russia to take their operation to a satisfactory conclusion. The quagmire and the resistance will become ever fiercer in western Ukraine, they say, where Ukrainian nationalism has native fervor and where no one has ever thought of themselves as Russian.
As Russia destroys the morale and the logistics of Ukrainian security forces, there will be more and more finger pointing and fracturing in the Ukrainian state that remains. Disorder will become more and more likely, and different factions and militias will vie for influence and survival during the fragmentation. This fragmentation will occur in regions that border Hungary, Poland, and Belarus. These countries are monitoring the situation in Ukraine closely and will do what is necessary to assert their interests. There are a few ways in which they may do so.
Poland is the most powerful country in that grouping, with a population size that competes with any second-tier European country and a military of that size as well. They have around 100,000 trained and mustered personnel to send into immediate mobilization, with several hundred pieces of various types of heavy equipment. If Ukrainian forces become too weak while Poland fears ensuing chaos, those troops may indeed be sent into Ukrainian territory to reassert order. Poland has a strongly nationalist government that is not afraid to assert influence in the region, and it would be in keeping of Polish past rule of that part of Ukraine.
Belarus is a country tied to both Ukraine and Poland as a nation formerly part of the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth. Belarus also shares history with Russia as part of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. Belarussian President Lukashenko has tried to keep good relations with all of his neighbors, but he has had to move closer to Russia as a result of perceived and real Western-backed threats to his government, relying on Russia to support him through such political turbulence. Russia has already moved more units back into Belarussian territory on the border of Poland in order to monitor Polish movement in the area. There is also intelligence indicating that Belarus has prepared units to be deployed across its border into Ukraine. As a dependent of Russia, Belarus would not want an alliance, hostile to its patron, between Poland and Ukraine to take shape on its border and surround it on two sides. They have around half the personnel the Polish military has, but they have plenty of old Soviet weapons and equipment, and would pose a challenge, especially if Russia destroys Polish heavy equipment before it arrives at the frontline.
If local authorities break down in Transcarpathia, Ukraine, where Hungarians live, the nationalist Hungarian government is sure to keep an eye on the situation, and will protect Hungarians there. Hungarian troops wouldn’t leave until they reestablish authority there. Many supporters of Hungary’s government there will want to become part of Hungary.
Those who cling onto the current vision of the world may scoff at Russian success and disbelieve that Western competitors like Russia could do anything to really rival Western success. They disregard the facts on the ground to their foolish peril. They do not realize how undercurrents of movement can lead to massive success and monumental changes down the line. It is not good to gloss over potential outcomes. Western hubris is deadly.
Support me and my work:
https://venmo.com/code?user_id=2399715727507456261
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tberg
And make sure to like, share, and spread the word! It helps more than anything.