Will IS-K Force Iran to Save the Hazaras?
Let’s consider the strategic and ideological necessity
In my past article, I mentioned the fact that the Taliban is facing an ideological war on two fronts, with one side taking the path of Salafi hardliners and the other taking the path of an Islam that’s open to inclusivity. Thus they risk alienating either side if they take a sure path in either direction. They are attempting to straddle the line to find their way to a position that won’t alienate them from every other denomination and ethnic group but a position that will allow them to keep their zealous core of true believers satisfied as well. Thus if they put a lot of effort into satisfying outsider demands for inclusivity, their core supporters will lose morale. And if they put a lot of effort into satisfying their core supporters, they will lose international legitimacy and suffer isolation and regional intervention.
What is the one regional power that would input great variables into this equation and change the results? Seeing as the conflict close to Tajikistan is already playing out, what are the chances of Iran getting involved against Sunni supremacists? Well, let’s look at the history of Iranian intervention.
They have already intervened against Sunni hardliners in Syria and Iraq, sending troops under the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps there to protect their Shia brethren. The specific division that was sent was actually a foreign legion comprised of Afghans, the majority of whose Shia population is Hazara. These expat Hazaras in their martial devotion are definitely aware of the dangers of the Taliban and IS to their ethnic cohort in Afghanistan and would find great pleasure in protecting their own communities, especially since that’s the mission of their specific legion. This legion is named after the Fatimid Caliphate, which was the first Shia dynasty to rule the Muslim world. Thus it is ideologically ripe for dealing with religious rivals.
As pressure from IS mounts on the Taliban, their only ideological refuge will be towards a more hardline Sunni approach and finding a way towards rapprochement with their IS cousins. They have already alienated most others from whom they have have grown support. Thus they will have to keep up pace with their Salafi cousins in order that they will remain relevant in the eyes of their ideological support base. In such a case, they will step up attacks and persecution of Hazara Shias and will gather the ire of Iranians, not to mention Hazara recruits within the Iranian military. The Fatimid Banner may go into every area of the historical Hazara homeland to pursue liberation of the Hazarajat from the Taliban and IS.
I think the strategic logic will pressure the Taliban to become more and more oppressive and Iran to react against them and IS in more and more substantial ways.
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