In a matter of months, if not a few weeks, both Sweden and Finland will decide what their relationship to NATO will be. They will decide whether they want to join NATO or not. Traditionally, both countries have operated in the space of neutrality when it came to world affairs, especially when it came to war, but recent events have prompted both governments and people to reconsider their international positions and ponder the advantages and disadvantages of joining alliances for their own protections and interests. After Russia invaded Ukraine, they are thinking of whether they will be next on the list of countries Putin will invade for Russian interest.
Yet these public statements more favorable to NATO membership indeed increases the risk of war with Russia, as it was Western, NATO support of the regime in Kyiv that pushed Russia into this position in the first place. It wasn’t until Americans and Europeans said they would support Georgia becoming a member of NATO that Russia invaded pro-Russian areas of Georgia. And it wasn’t until America installed a new regime in Kyiv, trained Ukrainian troops to operate as NATO units, pushed for Ukraine to become a part of the Western Bloc, and supported actions against Russians in Ukraine that Russia decided to invade Ukraine to protect the national security of Russia, which doesn’t want a big state like that acting as a Western deputy threatening Russia on its border.
So, if Russia also wants to avoid that scenario with Sweden, a dominant player in the Baltic, and Finland, the European country with whom Russia shares the longest border, then Russia will have to exercise more and more pressure and influence upon those countries. If that doesn’t work, Russia has one more scenario to consider: another war.
Yet those countries are so big, and Russia doesn’t seem to be able to bring the invasion of Ukraine to quick completion, at least according to spoiled modern eyes, so how would they even consider a military option on that front? Let’s consider more limited options Russia can employ, in a scenario more akin to its operations in Georgia.
The main priority of Russia, following the Rimland Theory of geopolitics, is the protection of its periphery, so that it’s not encircled and cut off. That means they need to protect their position in the Baltic, which gives their navy along with Kaliningrad an ability to respond to threats from Northern and Western Europe. How would they be able to keep Sweden neutral and keep them from extending the Western attack radius deep into Russia’s primary maritime access to Northern Europe?
Well, they may consider invading Gotland, an island owned by Sweden that lies in the center of the Baltic, allowing its owner to control sea access and also extend strategic military and commercial influence across the Baltic. Whoever bases their operations on that island would have a radius of influence that would enable any operator there sure say on a great many matters all over the Baltic. Thus it was suggested on Russian TV that Russia invade the island and demand Sweden lease it to Russia so that Russia could defend its interests therefrom. It would also forestall NATO dominance over their access to the Baltic. They don’t want NATO to be able to threaten them from the Baltic or impose a naval embargo upon them.
Thus Russia would just have to take Gotland and a couple little Finnish islands in order to make Finland and Sweden ineligible for NATO membership, as any country joining NATO cannot have territory under dispute. It would prevent those countries from becoming members of the Western Bloc as long as Russia holds claim to them. Russia wants to ensure that it is not cut off and threatened on its borders.
The picture above shows the missile range of Russia’s missile emplacements on its Western border.
We can easily see how Russia may consider this option in defending its interests. The Baltic is in the range of Kaliningrad’s missile and rocket emplacements and the island right in the middle can easily be struck by a volley of its powerful payloads. They only need the targeting ability from drones or invading forces to carry it out, and they would be protected from NATO encirclement in Northwest Europe if they brought such an operation to completion. Let’s see what happens. These are interesting times for sure.